Szenarien zur Veränderung städtischer Sozialstrukturen und Lebensverhältnisse: Rückwirkungen auf kommunale Pflegesysteme und Kosten

English title: Scenarios for changing urban social structures and living conditions: repercussions on municipal care systems and costs

Author(s): Baldo Blinkert -

Language: German

Type: Book chapter

Year: 2013


Demographic, social and cultural change will have a serious impact on the care situation of people in need of care. In order to show which changes are to be expected, a simulation model has been developed that can present various scenarios of the development. The model simulations show that the "gap between the number of people in need of care and the" informal care potential "will also open under" favorable "conditions. This has consequences for the demand for care arrangements. The type of inpatient care will become significantly more important and the proportion of people in need of care will decrease drastically. An overburden of the social security systems is characterized. However, the results are not to be understood as predictions. They merely show the direction in which certain developments could take place when the conditions assumed for the scenarios occur.

From page no: 81

To page no: 99

Anthology: Szenarien zur demografischen, sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Städten und Regionen

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